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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Will There Be Sanctions Against Iran?

by Garry
The United States and some European partners are pushing ahead with sanctions against Iran for its nuclear programme. Whether or not the sanctions will work is questionable in light of China's involvement.
The sanctions which are being proposed against Iran are not very far reaching, and not very strong after being watered down by Russian and Chinese demands for changes. On March 24 Iran applied for membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO.) 

The other members of that organization are China, Russia, 
KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Several other nations are listed as "Observers' 

The ability to have sanctions working to promote a peaceful resolution to the apparent desire of 
Iran to possess nuclear weapons is predicated on a unified front of all concerned to present the sanctions and to eliminate any of the nations involved in the negotiations from working behind the scenes to provide materials, materiel and technological assistance Iran needs to continue on the path toward nuclear militarization. 

The inclusion of 
Iran in the SCO would seriously blunt the ability of the Western Powers to do any sort of serious economic arm twisting against the hard line Iranian regime. The largest consumers of Iranian oil are both Asian, China and Japan. (as of 2006) The primary investor in Irans energy sector is China, the single largest consumer of Iran's refined gasoline is now Singapore

A relevant passage from a Xinhua News Agency release: 

Courtesy of Xinhua, here’s what Chinese-language coverage had to say (translations by China Matters): 
The resolution emphasized diplomatic efforts, resumed dialogue and negotiations with 
Iran ... balance between sanctions and encouragement of negotiations. 
There are strict limits on targets of sanctions ... sanctions are "reversible", temporarily or even permanently if 
Iran takes positive steps to implement the Security Council resolution. 
Different countries have different interpretations of the resolution ... roots [of deadlock] are in the severe lack of mutual trust between the United States and 
Iran. If this problem is not resolved, then there will be no breakthrough on the Iran nuclear question.

The result of such a statement is to place a great deal of doubt on how far 
China is willing to go to pressure Iran to let go of it's nuclearization efforts. The bottom line for both the United States though and Israel is the inadmissibility of allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Iran's Hard line regime in the person of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly stated the goal of Iran is to "wipe Israel off the map" 

That threat is not one which can be easily overcome by merely wishing it away. The Chinese/Iranian connection places major obstacles in the path of coercing 
Iran to live at peace with it's neighbors and leaves the Europeans Bloc and more especially Israel with few options other than direct intervention in place of political pressure. 

Even the European partners in sanctions are very suspect, 
Germany by itself does more than US $5.5 billion worth of business with Iranevery year. Germany's willingness to lose that sort of consumer is very questionable when placed against the loss job production from the trade. 

The United States has also been a questionable proponent of sanctions against Iran, by allowing American companies to create front companies in Dubai and do business with 
Iran as merchants through those subsidiaries. The net loss of imports by all nations have been met with substantial gains for China in all sectors impacted by the losses. The ability of most nations to lose their trading partners though will place burdens on their respective governments and stress on their financial sectors at a time when none of the world markets can easily bear the strain. 

ChinaGermanyRussia, and Japan all have economic ties to Iran which would appear to be inseparable from their economies, but they should also recognize the dire circumstance place against the United States in relation to our actual survival as a nation. We can live without Iran, the oil in the ground will be there in fifty, one hundred or two hundred years if the United States is forced to take military action against Iran. Can the rest of the world live without the United States? 

The idea of a peacefully negotiated solution appears to have slipped away while the merchants were busy creating wealth. Wealth which in itself was not bad, but which seems to have controlled economic and foreign policy in a negative manner. The solution would seem to be energy independence for the United States, but that goal has been hampered by restrictive laws, and even more restrictive rulings from the Judiciary and mid level bureaucrats in government. Restrictions imposed without thought to the consequence of placing our own necks in a noose. 
The time to loosen the noose may be arriving shortly. Lets hope for a politician smart enough and strong enough to untie the knot.
I could be wrong in my assessment of the various personalities involved in the run for POTUS this election cycle, but at least two of the contestants don't seem to have more than a vague understanding of the intricate nature of the problems they will bump against ( maybe at 3:00 O'Clock in the morning?) And the one who has the best chance of dealing with the thorny issues must first get the official Okee Dokee from  a majority of the Electoral College. I am so very glad I have a personal relationship with the Living God, His Son and am able through His Holy Spirit to place my burdens on Greater Shoulders than mine.
Two of the "America Is The Enemy Party" sycophants need to have their diapers changed, the rest of them need to look at the rather antagonistic world we live in these days and decide if Hillary or Obama is able and willing to Stand in the Gap. I don't believe either of them is capable and I strongly queston Obamas intent to do so. He appears to be an agent of change, for the other side. Those who would have this nation cease to exist.